Why Trump Won’t be Impeached Any Time Soon

I see any impeachment of Trump before 2019 as extremely unlikely. Here’s why.

First, for context, I believe the GOP as a party would be better off with a swift impeachment and resignation than a protracted scandal. Every week this remains in the news, their ability to pass legislation is impaired, and the GOP’s risk of losing the House in 2018 goes up. When you have a festering wound, sometimes the best thing to do is to accept the pain of cauterizing it, quickly. However, I see very few signs of it happening.

The problem is this. Trump’s support is still high among his base. His popularity is likely extremely high among the minority of GOP voters who vote in the primaries. That means that any GOP House member who voted to impeach would be at major risk of losing to a Trump loyalist in the 2018 primary. Thus, no individual House member can dare be too aggressive without risking their seat.

A legislator can only move forward if they believe that the GOP’s base has or is imminently about to turn against Trump, thus protecting them from losing out to a more conservative opponent in the primaries.

Trump’s support among his base has to fall substantially before that can happen. There’s no sign of that happening any time on the horizon.

Or, of course, GOP Reps could vote to impeach if their conscience demanded it, at the risk of losing their seat. That’s possible. But I’d put the odds against it.

Trump Isn’t Hitler. The US isn’t 1930s Germany

Trump isn’t Hitler. And, more importantly, the US is a far different place than Germany in the 1930s. We’re a 240-year-old nation, not a 14-year old republic reeling from WWI. Our institutions are more solid and stable. They can’t be swept away in the way that Hitler was able to sweep away¬†the Weimar Republic’s.

I don’t say this to encourage complacency: The next few years are likely to see a big regression in our laws, and rollback of some significant and important progress we’ve made. Trump’s election is not a good thing. There are darker days ahead. We need to work hard and smart to get the country back on track and headed into the future instead of the past. And we should be prepared for the possibility that things get worse than expected, as well.

But we shouldn’t panic. We shouldn’t give up. We shouldn’t flee.

We should stay here and win our country back.